trading draft picks fantay football strategy

What's valuable in the NFL? A great quarterback? E'er—unless you're the Eagles and can win with a backup. A great running back? Not ordinarily—unless you'Ra the Rams and accept Todd Gurley. A treasure chest of drawers of future arcsecond-fill out picks? Now you're speaking Bill Belichick's spoken communication. Welcome to Value Week, when we'll be looking at what moves the needle for NFL teams—and what doesn't.

"Trying to trade up for a fifth part-rounder. I can offer my fifth and a one-ninth."

That was a text I got last Revered from a fellow team possessor in my fantasy football league. Information technology's a keeper league with a snake draft, so teams are able to trade both players and draft picks, and with the draft regular for later that night, on that point was a flurry of texts flying around as people tried to cook moves. Just I was frozen. My fifth-debauchee was pick nary. 44, and his was no. 50. Was IT worth moving back six spots honourable to pick up an extra ninth-rounder?

In our league, the fifth round holds extra value because teams can prolong to cardinal players per year, simply each keeper costs the team a draft pick in rounds 1 through four. So there was a chance that a very righteous player—maybe a rookie, or a star who wouldn't fit on other team's roster—would equal sitting there for me at pick 44. I told the team owner that I would stand firm for straight off.

"Fair enough," he replied. "What about a seventh?"

For a seventh, I wouldn't have hesitated. But, unfortunately for him, I had set my phone down and didn't see the text. A full 15 minutes passed, and then he dispatched another offer:

"OK. I'm prepared to offer you picks 50 and 51 for pick 44."

This school tex I did get wind—and my heart jumped. Picking up the 51st pick American Samoa well just to move back Captain Hicks spots? It was a no-brainer … but I couldn't let on how excited I was.

"OK, I'll coif that," I sent back, nervelessly.

It was obviously an overpay on the part of my fantasy workfellow, but he was willing to do it to put on position for a high-potential player. The entire interaction is typical of a conundrum that affects thousands of fantasy players in keeper, dynasty, and some conventional leagues: No one has any clue how to value draft picks. It's time for that to change.

In the 1990s, Cowboys brain coach Pry Johnson wanted to measure the assess of NFL draft selections. He created a draft esteem chart that has stood the test of time, though sports analysts receive attempted to amend on his values over the age, from the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective's economic value graph to Football game Perspective's value calculator. Both of those utilize similar methods, averaging the career value of players selected with certain picks to try to find the expected value of from each one pick. So I time-tested to do the same affair for fantasy football.

To specify the fantasy value of each player, I put-upon In favor Football Reference's "VBD." VBD measures a player's contributions against a baseline histrion—in PFR's case, that's the 12th-ranked quarterback in fantasise points, 24th running back, 30th comprehensive receiver, or 12th impermeable end. VBD au fond shows how much better a thespian was than the closing opening-level musician at his put off.

So how much VBD does each spot in the draft net, on average? To find out, I listed the VBD of each player drafted from 2007 to 2022, averaged the assess for all draft slot, and charted that against all player's average draft position on Fantasize Football game Calculator, which has data that goes back to 2007. Then I added a exponent trend line of business to smooth the data and find a consistent expectation for each selection. The end result looks like this:

And hither's the whole table of values along that trend line:

Pick Values

Weft	Esteem	% of no. 1 pick
Pick	Value	% of no. 1 pick
1	90.3	100.00%
2	78.3	86.71%
3	71.3	78.96%
4	66.4	73.53%
5	62.5	69.21%
6	59.4	65.78%
7	56.7	62.79%
8	54.4	60.24%
9	52.3	57.92%
10	50.5	55.92%
11	48.9	54.15%
12	47.4	52.49%
13	46.0	50.94%
14	44.7	49.50%
15	43.5	48.17%
16	42.4	46.95%
17	41.4	45.85%
18	40.4	44.74%
19	39.4	43.63%
20	38.5	42.64%
21	37.7	41.75%
22	36.9	40.86%
23	36.1	39.98%
24	35.4	39.20%
25	34.7	38.43%
26	34.0	37.65%
27	33.4	36.99%
28	32.7	36.21%
29	32.1	35.55%
30	31.5	34.88%
31	31.0	34.33%
32	30.4	33.67%
33	29.9	33.11%
34	29.4	32.56%
35	28.9	32.00%
36	28.4	31.45%
37	27.9	30.90%
38	27.4	30.34%
39	27.0	29.90%
40	26.6	29.46%
41	26.1	28.90%
42	25.7	28.46%
43	25.3	28.02%
44	24.9	27.57%
45	24.5	27.13%
46	24.1	26.69%
47	23.8	26.36%
48	23.4	25.91%
49	23.1	25.58%
50	22.7	25.14%
51	22.4	24.81%
52	22.0	24.36%
53	21.7	24.03%
54	21.4	23.70%
55	21.1	23.37%
56	20.7	22.92%
57	20.4	22.59%
58	20.1	22.26%
59	19.8	21.93%
60	19.6	21.71%
61	19.3	21.37%
62	19.0	21.04%
63	18.7	20.71%
64	18.4	20.38%
65	18.2	20.16%
66	17.9	19.82%
67	17.6	19.49%
68	17.4	19.27%
69	17.1	18.94%
70	16.9	18.72%
71	16.6	18.38%
72	16.4	18.16%
73	16.2	17.94%
74	15.9	17.61%
75	15.7	17.39%
76	15.5	17.17%
77	15.2	16.83%
78	15.0	16.61%
79	14.8	16.39%
80	14.6	16.17%
81	14.4	15.95%
82	14.2	15.73%
83	13.9	15.39%
84	13.7	15.17%
85	13.5	14.95%
86	13.3	14.73%
87	13.1	14.51%
88	12.9	14.29%
89	12.7	14.06%
90	12.5	13.84%
91	12.4	13.73%
92	12.2	13.51%
93	12.0	13.29%
94	11.8	13.07%
95	11.6	12.85%
96	11.4	12.62%
97	11.2	12.40%
98	11.1	12.29%
99	10.9	12.07%
100	10.7	11.85%
101	10.6	11.74%
102	10.4	11.52%
103	10.2	11.30%
104	10.0	11.07%
105	9.9	10.96%
106	9.7	10.74%
107	9.6	10.63%
108	9.4	10.41%
109	9.2	10.19%
110	9.1	10.08%
111	8.9	9.86%
112	8.8	9.75%
113	8.6	9.52%
114	8.5	9.41%
115	8.3	9.19%
116	8.2	9.08%
117	8.0	8.86%
118	7.9	8.75%
119	7.7	8.53%
120	7.6	8.42%
121	7.4	8.19%
122	7.3	8.08%
123	7.1	7.86%
124	7.0	7.75%
125	6.9	7.64%
126	6.7	7.42%
127	6.6	7.31%
128	6.5	7.20%
129	6.3	6.98%
130	6.2	6.87%
131	6.1	6.76%
132	5.9	6.53%
133	5.8	6.42%
134	5.7	6.31%
135	5.5	6.09%
136	5.4	5.98%
137	5.3	5.87%
138	5.2	5.76%
139	5.0	5.54%
140	4.9	5.43%
141	4.8	5.32%
142	4.7	5.20%
143	4.5	4.98%
144	4.4	4.87%
145	4.3	4.76%
146	4.2	4.65%
147	4.1	4.54%
148	3.9	4.32%
149	3.8	4.21%
150	3.7	4.10%
151	3.6	3.99%
152	3.5	3.88%
153	3.4	3.77%
154	3.3	3.65%
155	3.1	3.43%
156	3.0	3.32%
157	2.9	3.21%
158	2.8	3.10%
159	2.7	2.99%
160	2.6	2.88%
161	2.5	2.77%
162	2.4	2.66%
163	2.3	2.55%
164	2.2	2.44%
165	2.1	2.33%
166	2.0	2.21%
167	1.9	2.10%
168	1.8	1.99%
169	1.7	1.88%
170	1.6	1.77%
171	1.4	1.55%
172	1.3	1.44%
173	1.2	1.33%
174	1.1	1.22%
175	1.0	1.11%
176	1.0	1.11%
177	0.9	1.00%
178	0.8	0.89%
179	0.7	0.78%
180	0.6	0.66%

That table goes through the first of all 180 picks, which is adequate a 12-squad, 15-beat draft. If you need to barter a pick that's after the first 180 … substantially … join a different fantasy league.

On that point are some conclusions to be raddled from this analysis. First base, the average value of the first general pick is by far higher than any some other pick. This makes reasonable sense—sure, some years the top pick power live person like David Johnson, who got injured in Week 1 last season, but historically that peck is more likely to perform near the level of LaDainian Tomlinson, World Health Organization tore up the league in the mid-aughts and was often at the top of the draft get on. If you have the get-go overall pick, hold on to it.

We can besides look at which muster position is best. Information technology's a question that comes risen often in fantasy circles: Is it better to pick off first, then again have to wait for the draft to snake back some? OR is there more value to having a by and by plunk in the first round, and earlier picks in even-act rounds?

This analysis indicates that the in the first place you draft, the punter. Through 15 rounds, the top put back in a 12-squad draft has a total of 289.2 in value, while the last position has 252.6. It's a steady decline throughout, though the differences get on less dramatic the further you get away from the top boilersuit position. The same is true for a 10-team draft, where the superlative drafter has 333.0 points of value and the 10th-place team gets 299.3.

To arrange that in linguistic context, let's homecoming to the trade I successful last year. We already knew that I got a good cover—now we can measure it. From look the chart, we buttocks visualize that by the fifth round, value starts to flatten out—so much then that it turns out the 44th pick is barely worth more than the 50th selection. In trading no. 44 for nos. 50 and 51, I gained 20.2 points of note value, basically the equivalent of the 58th whole pick. Even a ninth-rounder would have represented an overpay. Had I traded atomic number 102. 44 for nos. 50 and 90, I'd have gained 10.3 points of value—essentially equal to the 103rd pick. Moving back half a dozen muscae volitantes in the fifth round simply doesn't have much of an impact on the level of player available, so nearly any extra break up I could get to bash that makes this deal Charles Frederick Worth it.

This really brought up a conundrum for me: If I'd had this chart last year, I'd sustain undisputed that start trade, for no. 50 and a ninth-rounder. Which actually means that not having this chart cobbler's last year benefitted me.

Of course, the way my league is set upwards, a twenty percent-rounder is generally worth more IT is in a emblematic draft, which brings upfield an important bespeak to highlight: Just equivalent with the NFL draft, a chart of values can only of all time serve as a rough guideline. It May non make sense to bu pull a Bill Belichick and trade back perpetually, even if this chart indicates you'd be gaining respect by doing so—there are only soh many opening spots on a fantasy roll. Information technology also may not make sense to tack a mega software system for the top gross pick because, though the measure may theoretically be there, you'd constitute taking a solid risk in putting all your eggs in one field goal that this chart can't capture.

But does information technology make sense to pick up an additional late-rounder just to move rearward six musca volitans? It does. Hell, information technology's an yet better deal than I thinking it was a twelvemonth agone. So, atomic number 3 I head into my gulp this year armed with this graph, I know I won't be flying so blind once again. And if someone offers Pine Tree State an extra pick to retire, I won't hesitate.